Thursday, December 10, 2009
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Oil drops below $74 as traders watch US dollar (Yahoo! Finance)
By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer
On 3:42 am EST, Tuesday December 8, 2009
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices dropped below $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after a strengthening U.S. dollar extended a four day sell-off in crude to two-month lows.
Benchmark crude for January delivery was down 6 cents to $73.87 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.54 to settle at $73.93 on Monday.
The dollar, boosted by a better than expected U.S. jobs report last week, helped push oil prices out of a two-month range of between $75 and $82.
Investors have been buying crude as a hedge against inflation as the dollar has slid this year amid massive government stimulus spending and low interest rates. When the dollar rises, traders tend to sell their positions in oil.
"The movement of the dollar has continued to be a leading driver of oil pricing," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "But when the price falls to the mid-$70s, many market participants see that as a buying opportunity."
In Asian trade, the dollar was mixed. The euro fell to $1.4805 from $1.4820 in New York late Monday while the dollar fell to 89.04 yen from 89.49.
In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.01 while gasoline rose 0.54 cent to $1.94. Natural gas jumped 7.0 cents to $5.04 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude for January delivery rose 22 cents to $76.65 on the ICE Futures exchange.
Jaibeer says:
My eyes are on canadian report on BOC rate statement which is due on 09:00 am GST, dollar may slide during this session giving a support to GBP. GBPUSD may possibly cross 1.6400 level upside.
On 3:42 am EST, Tuesday December 8, 2009
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices dropped below $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after a strengthening U.S. dollar extended a four day sell-off in crude to two-month lows.
Benchmark crude for January delivery was down 6 cents to $73.87 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.54 to settle at $73.93 on Monday.
The dollar, boosted by a better than expected U.S. jobs report last week, helped push oil prices out of a two-month range of between $75 and $82.
Investors have been buying crude as a hedge against inflation as the dollar has slid this year amid massive government stimulus spending and low interest rates. When the dollar rises, traders tend to sell their positions in oil.
"The movement of the dollar has continued to be a leading driver of oil pricing," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "But when the price falls to the mid-$70s, many market participants see that as a buying opportunity."
In Asian trade, the dollar was mixed. The euro fell to $1.4805 from $1.4820 in New York late Monday while the dollar fell to 89.04 yen from 89.49.
In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.01 while gasoline rose 0.54 cent to $1.94. Natural gas jumped 7.0 cents to $5.04 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude for January delivery rose 22 cents to $76.65 on the ICE Futures exchange.
Jaibeer says:
My eyes are on canadian report on BOC rate statement which is due on 09:00 am GST, dollar may slide during this session giving a support to GBP. GBPUSD may possibly cross 1.6400 level upside.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Friday, December 4, 2009
Dollar soars after unemployment rate drops (Yahoo Finance!)
Dollar soars after US jobless rate drops; investors weigh possible earlier rate hike
By Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer
On 10:30 am EST, Friday December 4, 2009
NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar leaped higher Friday after the government said the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 10 percent in November, leading traders to weigh chances that the the Federal Reserve might begin raising interest rates sooner than they had expected.
The 16-nation euro dropped to $1.4942 in New York morning trade from $1.5092 late Thursday in New York. Before the government's release at 8:30 a.m. in New York, the euro had traded above $1.50.
The British pound rose to $1.6613 from $1.6566, while the dollar leapt to 89.59 Japanese yen from 88.21 yen.
Against a basket of six currencies, the dollar was up 0.8 percent since the government's jobs report.
High unemployment is one factor keeping the Fed from raising U.S. interest rates, currently at a record low range near zero, among the lowest in the world.
It is relatively cheap for investors to borrow dollars, and analysts say traders are using the dollar to fund "carry trades," which weigh on the currency. In a carry trade, an investor borrows dollars in order to buy higher-yielding assets and makes money on the difference in interest rates.
But if unemployment falls faster than expected, that could prompt the Fed to start raising rates sooner than analysts expect, which has been the second half of next year or perhaps even 2011.
Investors are "reassess(ing) the trajectory of Fed policy in light of evidence of light at the end of the tunnel of long and deep job losses," said Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman, and an interest-rate hike in the second quarter of 2010 "is not being ruled out."
Once the Fed starts hiking rates and curbing its extraordinary asset purchases, "we expect the dollar to find great traction," Chandler said.
On Friday, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in October. Employers also cut the smallest number of jobs since the recession began. The economy shed only 11,000 jobs. The data "is a sign that the economic recovery may be gathering momentum," said analysts from research firm Capital Economics in a note. But they cautioned that "five months after the recession ended, the economy is still shedding jobs."
The dollar over the past year and a half has tended to trade inversely to stocks as investors sought a haven amid a meltdown in riskier emerging markets and U.S. equities. Buying the dollar allows investors access to the super-safe, extremely liquid market for short-term U.S. Treasurys. Since March, the low-yielding dollar has suffered as stocks, commodities and emerging-market currencies soared as investors become increasingly confident with the idea of a global recovery.
That relationship may finally be winding down, said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital in Toronto. As the risk of a double-dip recession in the U.S. recedes, he said, investors are going to be increasingly comfortable buying the dollar due to better-than-expected economic and corporate data.
"As the economic recovery gains traction... the market is becoming more comfortable in following data more along the economic fundamentals," he said.
Strauss concurred that investors were also pricing in the possibility that the Fed would hike rates sooner than the second half of next year if the job market continues to improve.
In other trading, the dollar dropped to 1.0498 Canadian dollars from 1.0536 late Thursday after the Canadian government said the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent in November from 8.6 percent the previous month. The economy gained 79,000 jobs.
The dollar rose back above parity with the Swiss franc. In morning trading, the dollar rose to 1.0087 Swiss francs from 99.89 francs.
Jaibeer says:
This news has really made a great impact on Dollar against all other currencies, dollar rose 160 pips against yen in only 40 minutes wopping up from 88.30 to 89.87. At the same time you could see EURUSD affected more than GBPUSD because of the cross currency play between EURGBP. You can see below where I sold GBPUSD right from the top:
By Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer
On 10:30 am EST, Friday December 4, 2009
NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar leaped higher Friday after the government said the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 10 percent in November, leading traders to weigh chances that the the Federal Reserve might begin raising interest rates sooner than they had expected.
The 16-nation euro dropped to $1.4942 in New York morning trade from $1.5092 late Thursday in New York. Before the government's release at 8:30 a.m. in New York, the euro had traded above $1.50.
The British pound rose to $1.6613 from $1.6566, while the dollar leapt to 89.59 Japanese yen from 88.21 yen.
Against a basket of six currencies, the dollar was up 0.8 percent since the government's jobs report.
High unemployment is one factor keeping the Fed from raising U.S. interest rates, currently at a record low range near zero, among the lowest in the world.
It is relatively cheap for investors to borrow dollars, and analysts say traders are using the dollar to fund "carry trades," which weigh on the currency. In a carry trade, an investor borrows dollars in order to buy higher-yielding assets and makes money on the difference in interest rates.
But if unemployment falls faster than expected, that could prompt the Fed to start raising rates sooner than analysts expect, which has been the second half of next year or perhaps even 2011.
Investors are "reassess(ing) the trajectory of Fed policy in light of evidence of light at the end of the tunnel of long and deep job losses," said Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman, and an interest-rate hike in the second quarter of 2010 "is not being ruled out."
Once the Fed starts hiking rates and curbing its extraordinary asset purchases, "we expect the dollar to find great traction," Chandler said.
On Friday, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in October. Employers also cut the smallest number of jobs since the recession began. The economy shed only 11,000 jobs. The data "is a sign that the economic recovery may be gathering momentum," said analysts from research firm Capital Economics in a note. But they cautioned that "five months after the recession ended, the economy is still shedding jobs."
The dollar over the past year and a half has tended to trade inversely to stocks as investors sought a haven amid a meltdown in riskier emerging markets and U.S. equities. Buying the dollar allows investors access to the super-safe, extremely liquid market for short-term U.S. Treasurys. Since March, the low-yielding dollar has suffered as stocks, commodities and emerging-market currencies soared as investors become increasingly confident with the idea of a global recovery.
That relationship may finally be winding down, said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital in Toronto. As the risk of a double-dip recession in the U.S. recedes, he said, investors are going to be increasingly comfortable buying the dollar due to better-than-expected economic and corporate data.
"As the economic recovery gains traction... the market is becoming more comfortable in following data more along the economic fundamentals," he said.
Strauss concurred that investors were also pricing in the possibility that the Fed would hike rates sooner than the second half of next year if the job market continues to improve.
In other trading, the dollar dropped to 1.0498 Canadian dollars from 1.0536 late Thursday after the Canadian government said the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent in November from 8.6 percent the previous month. The economy gained 79,000 jobs.
The dollar rose back above parity with the Swiss franc. In morning trading, the dollar rose to 1.0087 Swiss francs from 99.89 francs.
Jaibeer says:
This news has really made a great impact on Dollar against all other currencies, dollar rose 160 pips against yen in only 40 minutes wopping up from 88.30 to 89.87. At the same time you could see EURUSD affected more than GBPUSD because of the cross currency play between EURGBP. You can see below where I sold GBPUSD right from the top:
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Gold / FX correlations
Posted by Mitul Kotecha on December 2, 2009
There is no shortage of cash rich investors in Asia even amidst the current troubles in Dubai. Indeed, sentiment in the gemstones market is particularly upbeat, with a rare five-carat pink diamond selling for a record HK$84.24 million in Hong Kong. Perhaps this is a good reflection of abundant liquidity and of course wealth in Asia and in particular China, with talk that mainland Chinese investors were strong participants in the diamond auction.
It’s not just diamonds that are selling for record prices; gold hit a fresh high above $1,200 and once again at least part of this is attributable to the appetite of Asian central banks as well as demand from China as the country tries to increase its gold reserves. The rise in gold prices has coincided with a bullish announcement from the world’s top gold producer that it has completely eliminated its market hedges earlier than forecast due to the positive outlook on prices and waning supply.
The correlation between gold prices and the USD remains very strong at -0.88 over the last 3-months, with firmer gold prices, implying further USD weakness. In fact, the gold / USD correlation has been consistently strong over the past few months and is showing little sign of diminishing.
Over the past 6-months the correlation has been -0.91 and over the past 1-month it was -0.75. Assuming that anything above 0.70 can be considered statistically significant, the relationship shows that USD weakness has been well correlated with gold strength and that despite talk of a breakdown in the relationship it appears to remain solid.
As long as the bullish trend in gold continues, the pressure on the USD will remain in place. Adding to this pressure is the fact that risk is back on for now. Markets took the news of a fall in the ISM manufacturing index and in particular the drop in the employment component in its stride even though it supports the view of a weaker than consensus drop in payrolls in November when it is published on Friday.
There are still plenty of reasons to be cautious in the weeks ahead and although we appear to be back in a “risk on” environment markets are likely to gyrate between “risk on” and “risk off” over coming weeks. At least for now, the USD looks to remain under pressure but if risk aversion creeps back up as I suspect it may then the USD will see a bit more resilience into year end.
Moreover, central banks globally are reaching the limits of their tolerance of USD weakness and will be tested once again, with EUR/USD back above 1.5000, EUR/CHF moving back below 1.5100 and the USD/JPY set to re-test 85.00 following the relatively benign measures announced by the BoJ in which the Bank did little to stem deflationary pressure or weaken the JPY.
There is no shortage of cash rich investors in Asia even amidst the current troubles in Dubai. Indeed, sentiment in the gemstones market is particularly upbeat, with a rare five-carat pink diamond selling for a record HK$84.24 million in Hong Kong. Perhaps this is a good reflection of abundant liquidity and of course wealth in Asia and in particular China, with talk that mainland Chinese investors were strong participants in the diamond auction.
It’s not just diamonds that are selling for record prices; gold hit a fresh high above $1,200 and once again at least part of this is attributable to the appetite of Asian central banks as well as demand from China as the country tries to increase its gold reserves. The rise in gold prices has coincided with a bullish announcement from the world’s top gold producer that it has completely eliminated its market hedges earlier than forecast due to the positive outlook on prices and waning supply.
The correlation between gold prices and the USD remains very strong at -0.88 over the last 3-months, with firmer gold prices, implying further USD weakness. In fact, the gold / USD correlation has been consistently strong over the past few months and is showing little sign of diminishing.
Over the past 6-months the correlation has been -0.91 and over the past 1-month it was -0.75. Assuming that anything above 0.70 can be considered statistically significant, the relationship shows that USD weakness has been well correlated with gold strength and that despite talk of a breakdown in the relationship it appears to remain solid.
As long as the bullish trend in gold continues, the pressure on the USD will remain in place. Adding to this pressure is the fact that risk is back on for now. Markets took the news of a fall in the ISM manufacturing index and in particular the drop in the employment component in its stride even though it supports the view of a weaker than consensus drop in payrolls in November when it is published on Friday.
There are still plenty of reasons to be cautious in the weeks ahead and although we appear to be back in a “risk on” environment markets are likely to gyrate between “risk on” and “risk off” over coming weeks. At least for now, the USD looks to remain under pressure but if risk aversion creeps back up as I suspect it may then the USD will see a bit more resilience into year end.
Moreover, central banks globally are reaching the limits of their tolerance of USD weakness and will be tested once again, with EUR/USD back above 1.5000, EUR/CHF moving back below 1.5100 and the USD/JPY set to re-test 85.00 following the relatively benign measures announced by the BoJ in which the Bank did little to stem deflationary pressure or weaken the JPY.
[Performance Reviews] How to Give – and Get – Great Feedback
(Courtesy: J. Mike Smith, http://life.backwest.com/)
It’s performance review season for many people and the curse of most performance reviews – getting or giving accurate feedback – will be the bane of many a supervisor and employee. It does not need to be that hard. Habits, and the usual ways of giving / getting feedback, though, will do in many an attempt to give and get good, helpful feedback. And whether you’re someone giving feedback, or a someone receiving feedback, you ultimately get paid to perform (or get someone to perform) at a higher level.
Here are three thing you can do to give or get good, helpful feedback AND improve performance:
1. Describe the specific behavior / action / activity that you want to highlight. If the topic is “closing the sale,” describe in specifics what the person did to close the sale. For example, saying the person did a “good job – or bad job – of closing the sale” tells the person receiving the feedback next to nothing. (I’ve used a sales example but it could be any role or any job: conference presentations, financial analysis, running a business, etc.)
A better way (using closing the sale as an example) would be to say ”You spent the first part of your initial conversation with the customer letting them talk and asking them questions about what they valued and what their concerns might be. In doing so, you identified the main objections the customer had and follow-up and verbally responded to each one in detail to the customer. You also verbally noted some other objections that sometimes come up, and gave answers in advance to those potential objections as well. You reiterated the advantages to making the purchase now, weaving them into your responses regarding objections. You followed up with the customer by e-mail, reducing the advantages and objections to short bullet points in text. You indicated you would be following up with a call to ask for their business. You followed up with a call, and asked them specifically – “We’d like to do business with you – can we make the sale today” – for their business.
2. Describe the impact of the behavior / action / activity. What was the result of the action or behavior the person evidenced / displayed? Using the same sales example, the supervisor might note something as straight forward as “The customer made the purchase, and indicated that they had accelerated their plans to buy based on the information you communicated.”
3. Provide a qualitative assessment. This is the “good, bad, and ugly portion” of a review. What’s the value that you place on the behavior / activity / action plus its impact? In this case, the supervisor might say something like “you did a good job in selling to that customer.
What if the impact of the behavior is not-so-hot? After describing the impact, let them know that your assessment based on their impact is that it wasn’t a good job – maybe even a “bad” job. Then talk about other options / tactics / strategies that the person could have utilized that might have changed their impact / result rather than the one(s) they used.
As the growing body of research in the area of performance and performance improvement shows, the key to increasing performance is to get people to continually try to do better, and the best way to have them try to do better is to be mindful of the strategies and tactics they’re using, and the effectiveness and impact of those attempts.
In the end you don’t want people just focusing on results: you want them focusing on impact / results AND the different ways they might get those results. The problem with most poor performance isn’t the person or their smarts – it’s the fact that they’re using ineffective tools and strategies and not trying different ways as situations change.
Without those first two steps: tactics and strategies (which are really behaviors / actions / activities) and impact (success or effectiveness) a performance review is little more – and about as effective – as a check-the-box sheet. And since most people are going to spend more time and effort than what’s involved in check-the-box, you might as well make the review both meaningful and effective.
It’s performance review season for many people and the curse of most performance reviews – getting or giving accurate feedback – will be the bane of many a supervisor and employee. It does not need to be that hard. Habits, and the usual ways of giving / getting feedback, though, will do in many an attempt to give and get good, helpful feedback. And whether you’re someone giving feedback, or a someone receiving feedback, you ultimately get paid to perform (or get someone to perform) at a higher level.
Here are three thing you can do to give or get good, helpful feedback AND improve performance:
1. Describe the specific behavior / action / activity that you want to highlight. If the topic is “closing the sale,” describe in specifics what the person did to close the sale. For example, saying the person did a “good job – or bad job – of closing the sale” tells the person receiving the feedback next to nothing. (I’ve used a sales example but it could be any role or any job: conference presentations, financial analysis, running a business, etc.)
A better way (using closing the sale as an example) would be to say ”You spent the first part of your initial conversation with the customer letting them talk and asking them questions about what they valued and what their concerns might be. In doing so, you identified the main objections the customer had and follow-up and verbally responded to each one in detail to the customer. You also verbally noted some other objections that sometimes come up, and gave answers in advance to those potential objections as well. You reiterated the advantages to making the purchase now, weaving them into your responses regarding objections. You followed up with the customer by e-mail, reducing the advantages and objections to short bullet points in text. You indicated you would be following up with a call to ask for their business. You followed up with a call, and asked them specifically – “We’d like to do business with you – can we make the sale today” – for their business.
2. Describe the impact of the behavior / action / activity. What was the result of the action or behavior the person evidenced / displayed? Using the same sales example, the supervisor might note something as straight forward as “The customer made the purchase, and indicated that they had accelerated their plans to buy based on the information you communicated.”
3. Provide a qualitative assessment. This is the “good, bad, and ugly portion” of a review. What’s the value that you place on the behavior / activity / action plus its impact? In this case, the supervisor might say something like “you did a good job in selling to that customer.
What if the impact of the behavior is not-so-hot? After describing the impact, let them know that your assessment based on their impact is that it wasn’t a good job – maybe even a “bad” job. Then talk about other options / tactics / strategies that the person could have utilized that might have changed their impact / result rather than the one(s) they used.
As the growing body of research in the area of performance and performance improvement shows, the key to increasing performance is to get people to continually try to do better, and the best way to have them try to do better is to be mindful of the strategies and tactics they’re using, and the effectiveness and impact of those attempts.
In the end you don’t want people just focusing on results: you want them focusing on impact / results AND the different ways they might get those results. The problem with most poor performance isn’t the person or their smarts – it’s the fact that they’re using ineffective tools and strategies and not trying different ways as situations change.
Without those first two steps: tactics and strategies (which are really behaviors / actions / activities) and impact (success or effectiveness) a performance review is little more – and about as effective – as a check-the-box sheet. And since most people are going to spend more time and effort than what’s involved in check-the-box, you might as well make the review both meaningful and effective.
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