शिक्षानचा आयचआ घो!! (shikshanachy aaycha Gho!!!)

शिक्षानचा आयचआ घो
Shikshanachy Aaycha Gho

Guys, how often you like any movie trailor at first sight, tell me honestly, NO I am not talking about a movie trailor with big banner, highly paid bollywood heros/heroins, I am talking about a movie which has nothing to do with big star cast but a very well packed feature film that is highlighting some real life drama of our Mumbai's middle class families, oops I am sorry infact in India. In india education has aways been given prime importance where you get good future if you has bag full of degrees and certifictaion even though you dont have all those skills required.
Where our talent goes abroad with an MBA degree from a highly reputed institute to do a normal general management job which locals out there doing without being a graduate, and they are much better compared to skills and competence level.

If asked I am sure almost all of us will come out of something that we always wanted to achieve in our life, and I bet thats not something related to study, come on man dont you think fifteen years of study isnt sufficient in India to land a good job, well only few are lucky though.

We all have some hobbies like photography; dancing; playing drums bla bla bla, but still we hardly take some time out to satisfy our little voice inside everyone of us.

Well this morning I came across this trailor of "shikshanachy aaycha Gho!!!", a movie due to released on next year 15th Jan, shows it all. With a story, screenplay & direction by Mahesh Manjrekar, this movie has something we always have on the tip of our tongue but nobody argues about it.

Children in India have always gone through that psycological and metal pressure to always perform well and be ahead of their peers. These are the expectations from every family.

Shivraj Rane was an average student not because of lack of effort, but because he was borne with an average academic intelligence, but wehn he came to cricket he is a born genius. His extraordinary talent was lost on his father who like millions of other parents believed that a child's intellect is only reflected in their mark sheet, which eventually will give them a very "secure future". So starts his quest to make Shree the brightest and the best student in the world. But Shree cant handle this pressure and it reflects on his psyche. The relation between father and son deteriorates and there comes a time when in a fit of anger the father does something which makes him repent his actions. What is it that he does? Does the father-son relationship come back to normal? Does Shree even pick up a Cricket Bat? The answer lies in Shikshanachy Aaycha Gho!!!(शिक्षानचा आयचआ घो).

Where father role is played by Bharat Jadhav(Madhukar Narayan Rane), and son is played by Shaksham Kulkarni (Shree).

If you ask me personally I really like the trailor and the story so far and I am waiting for the release.

These days the trend has been set up on some social issues where you see "Rocket Singh - Salesman of the Year" where there is a below than average graduate struggles and becomes the salesman of the year, and another upcoming much awaited movie starring Aamir Khan "3 Idiots" and now this शिक्षानचा आयचआ घो.

Well personally speaking I really like the name....says it all..

GBPUSD a break-out at 1.6325

so as you can see a break-out has taken place as predicted this can be a potential uptrend. However I will wait for the core CPI reports. At this time you can expect market to make a decisive move only after this report and most of all in the overlapping session.
However, we saw most of the asian and european market in green color today, on the other hand we can see FTSE100 moving up by +0.48% and I am pretty much bullish on it today.
Well so far major movement will take place after 2 hours from now (0650 hrs GST now) and then only we will be able to see all these speculation in the market, where analysts have been arguing that dollar would have a rally based on economic recovery signals, is correct or not.
Still I am expecting GBPUSD to rise further today...

what is it? A possible break-out??

Above is GBPUSD pair which I follow, what I see here is a consolidation in this pair which has never taken place since a month on a scale. Could this be a possible break-out which before Christmas eve and New Year.
At this moment it is difficult to make an assumption but based on the recent rally in dollar it looks like if this breaks below 1.6200 it will make a big damage by whiping out all long traders who are possiblly under impression that this pair has gone under-valued.
Or could this be a signal before an uptrend which will confirm by tommorow's UK CPI reports, and also the important interest rate policy by fed. If reports shows a controlled CPI doing well below forecaste 1.8% this will give a support and a possible 1.6800 can take place.

Well I am supporting the later possiblity for an uptrend, becuase a good employment report last week which was supposed to increase the so called risk appetite among the investors did exactly reversed and supported dollar, making weak oil prices and a major Dubai World crisis might have forced investors to look for safe zone.

This week is crucial with a perspective of how dollar is going to react, a firm increase in USD may leave this year end to a positive note or to the same way that we have been noticing this year all along.

Time will tell....

Abu Dhabi bailing out Dubai World

Ok guys so here is the news which can go in favour of GBPUSD pair that Dubai World has been injected with $10 million by Abu Dhabi and UAE government. As we know major banks in UK had been involved with in financing to Dubai World project, and when this news broke on Nov 25 since then we have seen a fall in equity markets around the world and to my concern fall in GBP.

All I can say that this is a so far good news for the asian markets and may give a reason to a rise in banking sector in FTSE today, what I am expecting for GBPUSD pair to rise in European session, at moment which is struglling to stand on its broken legs.

A news to keep an eye on will be UK CPI (YoY) which will be deciding factor later in overlapping european and US session.

What is more worse from my point of view is all these bailing activities going on this period and who know pumping more money to bail out Dubai World may be a start of a new real estate bubble in Asia.
Wait and watch...

Dollar is making rally that may roll down by the end of this week

This morning when I was looking at the chart of GBPUSD, this pair made sudden upward move wopping up more than 100 pips in just two hours, at the same time the claims of dollar making a rally looked like fake, but just as traders who have been seeing a downrend in this pair decided to go long the pair broke loose by 100 pips flat. These look like an unexplained move in the market (especially this pair GBPUSD which I follow).
Last week I added that the pair could gain momentum as it had been undervalued but becuase of falling oil prices dollar was firm upward against majors.
Being economic recovery of US is on the way the demand for the crued oil is not going up and at the same time the decision from OPEC to not to cut the supply has drown the price of oil which was once trading at $82 per barrel but now has slide down to $68.

GBPUSD has shown a rangbound market with a support level at 1.6183 and a resistance level at 1.6320, I presume if this can be broken it may give an upward momenton to this pair whcih may cross 1.600 which will be my target.

Well lets see what is coming in this week for GBP and USD which will surely have an impact on this pair:

Tue Dec 15 - UK CPI
CPI always has a major impact on any pair which leads to the interest rate adjustment in the moneotry policy by central bank. This is being forecasted to increase from 1.5% to 1.8%.

Wed Dec 16 - USD - core CPI
Well not so much expected from this as the forecast is the same as last months 0.2%, still an important one.

Thus Dec 17 - USD - Unemployment Claims
Last 474K and forecast 470K
This is one of the major event in this week which cannot be overlooked.

Wikis in Plain English

A very informative video which will help you alot to work as a team when planning some task.
Lets get used to the new style of planning...

Jim Rogers-World Wide Depression

extecting short term rally in USD

Jim Rogers: Audit the Fed, Then Abolish It

Globe "Overdue for a Currency Crisis"; Why Jim Rogers Is Buying Dollars

What Recovery? America's Problems "Getting Worse, Not Better," Jim Rogers Says

REUTERS: Food inflation accelerates; RBI tightening seen

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Food prices rose at their fastest pace this year in late November, adding to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to tighten monetary policy sooner to contain any likely spill-over to the broader economy.

The food price index rose 19.05 percent in the 12 months to Nov. 28, as the worst dry spell in nearly four decades and floods in parts of the country hurt summer crops.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond briefly rose one basis point to the day's high of 7.54 percent after the release of the data. It had ended at 7.48 percent on Wednesday.
Food prices are politically sensitive in India and even though monetary policy can do little to influence them, Reserve Bank of India governor Duvvuri Subbarao, voiced concern on Wednesday rising food costs could fuel inflationary expectations.
"If food prices remain elevated, that will impact inflationary expectation and the RBI's job is to manage inflationary expectations," said Sujan Hajra, an economist with Anand Rathi Securities.
"So from that perspective, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) may be compelled to take action," Hajra said, adding the central bank may start by raising the cash reserve ratio in late December or early January.
The ratio is the proportion of deposits banks need to keep with the central bank.
A week ago, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development had cautioned India against complacency on rising prices.
Food prices usually ease in November and December, but analysts are worried the seasonal dip may not come this year and a government adviser has said high food prices in the period through December would warrant monetary action.
India's widely watched annual wholesale price inflation stood at 1.34 percent in October, but the low headline number reflects the effect of high fuel and commodity prices a year ago and masks a build-up of price pressures in Asia's third-largest economy.
Wholesale prices have already risen over 6 percent from the beginning of 2009/10 financial year that started in April.
Economists have said the index could climb to as much as 8 percent by the end of the fiscal year, above the central bank's perceived comfort zone of around 5 percent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which cut its key lending rate by 425 basis points during the worst of the global crisis, began scaling back its monetary stimulus at its last policy review in October, by removing some of the liquidity support measures.
It left its key rates steady in October, but fastest economic expansion in 18 months in the quarter through September, fuelled expectations that it will bring forward a rate rise to contain inflation.
The RBI holds its next policy meeting in late January, but it can adjust monetary policy at any time.

"Pocket Mein Rocket" (Music Video) - "ROCKET SINGH - Salesman of the Year"

Oil drops below $74 as traders watch US dollar (Yahoo! Finance)

By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer

On 3:42 am EST, Tuesday December 8, 2009
 
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices dropped below $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after a strengthening U.S. dollar extended a four day sell-off in crude to two-month lows.

Benchmark crude for January delivery was down 6 cents to $73.87 at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.54 to settle at $73.93 on Monday.
The dollar, boosted by a better than expected U.S. jobs report last week, helped push oil prices out of a two-month range of between $75 and $82.
Investors have been buying crude as a hedge against inflation as the dollar has slid this year amid massive government stimulus spending and low interest rates. When the dollar rises, traders tend to sell their positions in oil.
"The movement of the dollar has continued to be a leading driver of oil pricing," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "But when the price falls to the mid-$70s, many market participants see that as a buying opportunity."
In Asian trade, the dollar was mixed. The euro fell to $1.4805 from $1.4820 in New York late Monday while the dollar fell to 89.04 yen from 89.49.
In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.01 while gasoline rose 0.54 cent to $1.94. Natural gas jumped 7.0 cents to $5.04 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude for January delivery rose 22 cents to $76.65 on the ICE Futures exchange.
Jaibeer says:
  My eyes are on canadian report on BOC rate statement which is due on 09:00 am GST, dollar may slide during this session giving a support to GBP. GBPUSD may possibly cross 1.6400 level upside.

The Yin and Yang of Dressing to Sell

Dollar soars after unemployment rate drops (Yahoo Finance!)

Dollar soars after US jobless rate drops; investors weigh possible earlier rate hike
By Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer

On 10:30 am EST, Friday December 4, 2009
 
NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar leaped higher Friday after the government said the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 10 percent in November, leading traders to weigh chances that the the Federal Reserve might begin raising interest rates sooner than they had expected.

The 16-nation euro dropped to $1.4942 in New York morning trade from $1.5092 late Thursday in New York. Before the government's release at 8:30 a.m. in New York, the euro had traded above $1.50.
The British pound rose to $1.6613 from $1.6566, while the dollar leapt to 89.59 Japanese yen from 88.21 yen.
Against a basket of six currencies, the dollar was up 0.8 percent since the government's jobs report.
High unemployment is one factor keeping the Fed from raising U.S. interest rates, currently at a record low range near zero, among the lowest in the world.
It is relatively cheap for investors to borrow dollars, and analysts say traders are using the dollar to fund "carry trades," which weigh on the currency. In a carry trade, an investor borrows dollars in order to buy higher-yielding assets and makes money on the difference in interest rates.
But if unemployment falls faster than expected, that could prompt the Fed to start raising rates sooner than analysts expect, which has been the second half of next year or perhaps even 2011.
Investors are "reassess(ing) the trajectory of Fed policy in light of evidence of light at the end of the tunnel of long and deep job losses," said Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman, and an interest-rate hike in the second quarter of 2010 "is not being ruled out."
Once the Fed starts hiking rates and curbing its extraordinary asset purchases, "we expect the dollar to find great traction," Chandler said.
On Friday, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in October. Employers also cut the smallest number of jobs since the recession began. The economy shed only 11,000 jobs. The data "is a sign that the economic recovery may be gathering momentum," said analysts from research firm Capital Economics in a note. But they cautioned that "five months after the recession ended, the economy is still shedding jobs."
The dollar over the past year and a half has tended to trade inversely to stocks as investors sought a haven amid a meltdown in riskier emerging markets and U.S. equities. Buying the dollar allows investors access to the super-safe, extremely liquid market for short-term U.S. Treasurys. Since March, the low-yielding dollar has suffered as stocks, commodities and emerging-market currencies soared as investors become increasingly confident with the idea of a global recovery.
That relationship may finally be winding down, said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital in Toronto. As the risk of a double-dip recession in the U.S. recedes, he said, investors are going to be increasingly comfortable buying the dollar due to better-than-expected economic and corporate data.
"As the economic recovery gains traction... the market is becoming more comfortable in following data more along the economic fundamentals," he said.
Strauss concurred that investors were also pricing in the possibility that the Fed would hike rates sooner than the second half of next year if the job market continues to improve.
In other trading, the dollar dropped to 1.0498 Canadian dollars from 1.0536 late Thursday after the Canadian government said the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent in November from 8.6 percent the previous month. The economy gained 79,000 jobs.
The dollar rose back above parity with the Swiss franc. In morning trading, the dollar rose to 1.0087 Swiss francs from 99.89 francs.
 
Jaibeer says:
This news has really made a great impact on Dollar against all other currencies, dollar rose 160 pips against yen in only 40 minutes wopping up from 88.30 to 89.87. At the same time you could see EURUSD affected more than GBPUSD because of the cross currency play between EURGBP. You can see below where I sold GBPUSD right from the top:

Gold / FX correlations

Posted by Mitul Kotecha on December 2, 2009

There is no shortage of cash rich investors in Asia even amidst the current troubles in Dubai. Indeed, sentiment in the gemstones market is particularly upbeat, with a rare five-carat pink diamond selling for a record HK$84.24 million in Hong Kong. Perhaps this is a good reflection of abundant liquidity and of course wealth in Asia and in particular China, with talk that mainland Chinese investors were strong participants in the diamond auction.

It’s not just diamonds that are selling for record prices; gold hit a fresh high above $1,200 and once again at least part of this is attributable to the appetite of Asian central banks as well as demand from China as the country tries to increase its gold reserves. The rise in gold prices has coincided with a bullish announcement from the world’s top gold producer that it has completely eliminated its market hedges earlier than forecast due to the positive outlook on prices and waning supply.

The correlation between gold prices and the USD remains very strong at -0.88 over the last 3-months, with firmer gold prices, implying further USD weakness. In fact, the gold / USD correlation has been consistently strong over the past few months and is showing little sign of diminishing.

Over the past 6-months the correlation has been -0.91 and over the past 1-month it was -0.75. Assuming that anything above 0.70 can be considered statistically significant, the relationship shows that USD weakness has been well correlated with gold strength and that despite talk of a breakdown in the relationship it appears to remain solid.

As long as the bullish trend in gold continues, the pressure on the USD will remain in place. Adding to this pressure is the fact that risk is back on for now. Markets took the news of a fall in the ISM manufacturing index and in particular the drop in the employment component in its stride even though it supports the view of a weaker than consensus drop in payrolls in November when it is published on Friday.

There are still plenty of reasons to be cautious in the weeks ahead and although we appear to be back in a “risk on” environment markets are likely to gyrate between “risk on” and “risk off” over coming weeks. At least for now, the USD looks to remain under pressure but if risk aversion creeps back up as I suspect it may then the USD will see a bit more resilience into year end.

Moreover, central banks globally are reaching the limits of their tolerance of USD weakness and will be tested once again, with EUR/USD back above 1.5000, EUR/CHF moving back below 1.5100 and the USD/JPY set to re-test 85.00 following the relatively benign measures announced by the BoJ in which the Bank did little to stem deflationary pressure or weaken the JPY.

[Performance Reviews] How to Give – and Get – Great Feedback

(Courtesy: J. Mike Smith, http://life.backwest.com/)

It’s performance review season for many people and the curse of most performance reviews – getting or giving accurate feedback – will be the bane of many a supervisor and employee. It does not need to be that hard. Habits, and the usual ways of giving / getting feedback, though, will do in many an attempt to give and get good, helpful feedback. And whether you’re someone giving feedback, or a someone receiving feedback, you ultimately get paid to perform (or get someone to perform) at a higher level.

Here are three thing you can do to give or get good, helpful feedback AND improve performance:

1. Describe the specific behavior / action / activity that you want to highlight. If the topic is “closing the sale,” describe in specifics what the person did to close the sale. For example, saying the person did a “good job – or bad job – of closing the sale” tells the person receiving the feedback next to nothing. (I’ve used a sales example but it could be any role or any job: conference presentations, financial analysis, running a business, etc.)

A better way (using closing the sale as an example) would be to say ”You spent the first part of your initial conversation with the customer letting them talk and asking them questions about what they valued and what their concerns might be. In doing so, you identified the main objections the customer had and follow-up and verbally responded to each one in detail to the customer. You also verbally noted some other objections that sometimes come up, and gave answers in advance to those potential objections as well. You reiterated the advantages to making the purchase now, weaving them into your responses regarding objections. You followed up with the customer by e-mail, reducing the advantages and objections to short bullet points in text. You indicated you would be following up with a call to ask for their business. You followed up with a call, and asked them specifically – “We’d like to do business with you – can we make the sale today” – for their business.

2. Describe the impact of the behavior / action / activity. What was the result of the action or behavior the person evidenced / displayed? Using the same sales example, the supervisor might note something as straight forward as “The customer made the purchase, and indicated that they had accelerated their plans to buy based on the information you communicated.”

3. Provide a qualitative assessment. This is the “good, bad, and ugly portion” of a review. What’s the value that you place on the behavior / activity / action plus its impact? In this case, the supervisor might say something like “you did a good job in selling to that customer.

What if the impact of the behavior is not-so-hot? After describing the impact, let them know that your assessment based on their impact is that it wasn’t a good job – maybe even a “bad” job. Then talk about other options / tactics / strategies that the person could have utilized that might have changed their impact / result rather than the one(s) they used.

As the growing body of research in the area of performance and performance improvement shows, the key to increasing performance is to get people to continually try to do better, and the best way to have them try to do better is to be mindful of the strategies and tactics they’re using, and the effectiveness and impact of those attempts.

In the end you don’t want people just focusing on results: you want them focusing on impact / results AND the different ways they might get those results. The problem with most poor performance isn’t the person or their smarts – it’s the fact that they’re using ineffective tools and strategies and not trying different ways as situations change.

Without those first two steps: tactics and strategies (which are really behaviors / actions / activities) and impact (success or effectiveness) a performance review is little more – and about as effective – as a check-the-box sheet. And since most people are going to spend more time and effort than what’s involved in check-the-box, you might as well make the review both meaningful and effective.

Ranbir Kapoor is now Rocket Singh

Caught in loans you cannot repay? Read this!- Yahoo! India Finance

Source: BankBazaar.com

Akash was an IT employee who was well settled in his career. With a take home that more than met his needs, Akash decided to invest in his future. Let us see how he managed his finances. He applied for a car loan and a home loan. The car was worth Rs.10 L, a bit of an indulgence but then he had always wanted to own the brand. He then invested in a premium upmarket 5-bedroom apartment. His spouse Sheela tried suggesting that they should not be so extravagant but to no avail.


She had recently given up her job to take a break and spend more time with her one year old child. With no bulk savings for the immediate future she was worried about the manner in which Akash was spending the sole income they had. To top it off he invested all the money that remained from spending on the EMIs and his monthly expenses, in stocks. This was the year 2007. They were managing fine till Akash's stocks started tumbling in 2008. Instead of choosing another avenue, Akash started buying more stocks as they were cheaper during this period. The real shocker came when Akash was laid off when the global recession hit and his company had to cut back on resources to counter the effects.

How did Akash cope? How did he manage to pay his EMIs?

Akash did one smart thing though. He decided to approach a debt counseling centre for his financial hassles. They showed him the right way to manage his finances. They also mediated between him and his bank.

Luckily for him Sheela had an ancestral home back in her home town, which was bequeathed to her. She also had some fixed deposits and some gold that she had invested her savings in when she had an income. Based on the debt counselors' advice, she obtained a loan against her property. She then helped Akash pay a portion of the money towards his home loan and another portion towards his car loan as part prepayment. He also obtained written consent from the bank that he would resume repaying his loan once he got a job. In such situations banks do oblige you if you manage to repay most of the money or part of the money if not all as it was a better deal than no money at all.

Sheela whose industry was not so badly hit by the recession went back to her old job while Akash took a break and got to spend more time with his son. Fortunately for him, his peace of mind was restored thanks to Sheela's timely aid and the debt counselors' help.

Six months later he managed to land a good job with a reasonably good pay, though about 20% lesser than his previous pay. He resumed his EMI payments and as banks were slashing interest rates he again negotiated with his bank for a lower interest rate. As it timed with the pressure from RBI on banks for lowering interest rates for existing borrowers also, he managed to come to an understanding with his bank. Agreed, not all can get as lucky as Akash. It was a pretty close brush with fate for him and he could have fallen in a abyss of debt! Yes...he got very very lucky indeed.

However, Akash learnt a valuable lesson for life. He started following simple but smart methods to avert a future disaster.

a. He put aside three months of his pay into a separate account meant to serve as an emergency fund. He planned to put aside 3 more months of pay into that account.

b. He ensured that his current EMI did not exceed 40% of his current income. He manage prepay his home loan at regular intervals to bring this under control.

c. He with the help of Sheela managed to keep his monthly expenses including his loans within 60% of his income and put aside the rest as savings and investment

d. When he invested now he took care to diversify his portfolio and not stick to equities alone to survive a future stock market crash.

Here are some suggestions if you are stuck in debt and do not know how to cope.

1. Try to lower your interest rate. Negotiate with your bank. One other way is to convert your credit card debt into a personal loan debt. It will definitely be lesser than the credit card interest rate.

2. Calculate your net worth and see if any of your investments could help you prepay a part of your loans.

3. Make a contingency plan for the immediate future. Talk to your bank along with your debt counselors and explain your situation and see if you can resume your loan at a later date but do make an effort to prepay some amount.

4. If it is a double income household try and see if your spouse can support you in the event of a job loss in the short term before you land a job, in case you are suffering from a lay off.

5. Manage your current finances judiciously to battle through the current situation and emerge wiser.

Indian equity markets -- is a bubble building up?

(Nipun Mehta is Executive Director & Head - India, SG Private Banking. The views expressed in this column are his own)
By Nipun Mehta

At a Sensex level of around 17,000, are the Indian equity markets looking at the face of a possible bubble in the offing? Terrifying words, probably unjustified for a market which is still 20 percent lower than its all time peak touched in Jan 2008. Let's look at it from different perspectives.
In the Indian equity markets, unlike in other global markets, it is commonly believed that the day the roadside vendor starts giving 'tips' or the day cheerleaders with pom-poms start appearing on business channels, the top is near.
This time however, we have not yet seen any of this fanfare amongst investors or business commentators. There is hence little reason to believe that a retail investor driven bubble is on the horizon. Nowhere close to it actually, since there has been very little retail or high net worth individual (HNWI) participation in the rally of the last 9 months.

What has clearly driven the markets are the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) who have pumped in close to $7.4 bln in India in the last quarter raising their ownership to close to 19.2 percent up from 18.3 percent in the previous quarter. As per statistics available, FII ownership is also up by 2.5 percent from the March 2009 figure of 16.7 percent.
A large part of this is contributed by the dollar carry trade whereby FIIs raise funds at ridiculously low interest rates in dollars and invest it into a stronger currency viz INR. In the process they gain not just by the rising equity markets but also by the strengthening INR against $.

This is clearly similar to the Yen carry trade that happened earlier (whereby borrowings were in Yen at negligible interest rates) and which burst when the Yen -- a strongly controlled currency -- suddenly started strengthening. Can dollar carry trade stop? Can a similar bubble be building up in the $ carry trade as well?
Clearly the dollar carry trade can stop if interest rates in the U.S. rise. Can it happen in the short or medium term? Appears quite unlikely given the state of the U.S. economy and the statements the Fed has made in the recent past.

On the other hand, can the $ start appreciating enough for the stock market gains to be eaten away by a strengthening dollar? At least in the immediate term, this too appears unlikely. Considering the huge trade deficit, the Fed needs to ensure a weak dollar in order to encourage exports.
Effectively, there does not appear to be any bubble building in the Indian equity markets. What can however puncture the rally are the FII allocations to the emerging markets/India being realigned in January 2010 or the FIIs withdrawing big time under instructions by concerned central banks to use the borrowed funds for lending/investing within their own countries as opposed to help India or the emerging markets to benefit. Does that look possible?

US recognises Tibet as part of China: Obama Buzz Up Share

(courtesy: Yahoo! India)


Tue, Nov 17 11:38 AM

Beijing, Nov 17 (IANS) US President Barack Obama Tuesday said the US government recognises Tibet as a part of China.
He also said that the US supported the early resumption of dialogue between the Chinese government and representatives of the Dalai Lama to resolve any concerns and differences that the two sides may have.
'The US respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China,' Xinhua quoted Obama as saying at a joint press conference with Chinese President Hu Jintao here.

RBI survey of analysts sees FY10 GDP at 6 pct

Tuesday November 17, 11:20 AM

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Economists and analysts surveyed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised downwards India's gross domestic product projection to 6.0 percent for 2009/10 from 6.5 percent in the previous round of survey.
The forecasters also assigned a highest 34.3 percent chance for inflation to be within 6.0-6.9 percent in 2009/10, the survey showed.
The RBI released the results of the ninth round of survey on Monday, adding that the result in no way reflects the views of the central bank.
The central bank polled 21 respondents for the survey which included macro-economic parameters like GDP, inflation, interest rates, money supply and credit growth.
The RBI in its mid-term monetary policy review had kept its GDP projection for the current fiscal unchanged at 6.0 percent but had increased inflation target to 6.5 percent by end-March 2010 from 5.0 percent earlier.
The economists surveyed have sharply reduced their expectation for agriculture growth in 2009/10 to -1.4 percent from 2.5 percent projected in the previous round.

"For industry, the forecasts have been revised upwards from 4.8 percent to 6.3 percent whereas for the services sector, there was modest downward revision from 8.3 percent in the earlier survey to 8.1 percent in the current survey," RBI said.

The study also showed that the economists expect the Jul-Sep GDP growth at 6.2 percent and for Oct-Dec and Jan-Mar at 5.7 percent and 6.7 percent respectively.

The government is scheduled to announce the Jul-Sep GDP growth number on Nov. 30.

The forecasters expect headline inflation to be at 4.0 percent in Oct-Dec and at 6.8 percent the following quarter.
Over the next five years, GDP is expected to grow at 7.5 percent, unchanged from the previous round of survey, RBI said.
But inflation forecast over the next five years, was revised upwards to 5.5 percent from 5.3 percent in the previous survey.
(Reporting by Suvashree Dey Choudhury; Editing by Sunil Nair)

Jaibeer says:
Although RBI has predicted the increase in inflaction and at the same time decrease GDP, this has a signal to increase in the interest rate in the near future, so this is the best time to invest in commodities and real estate.

Dollar slides after short-lived boost as Bernanke says Fed will monitor sliding dollar

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar dropped Monday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged anew to keep interest rates at record-lows to nurture the economic recovery, but said the central bank will monitor the sliding U.S. dollar.

Higher interest rates can support a currency as investors transfer funds in search of better returns. Earlier this month, the ECB and BoE maintained their rates at 1 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, higher than the Fed's current rock-bottom range near zero.

Bernanke's rare remarks about the greenback gave a short-lived boost to the dollar. The 16-nation euro slid to $1.4878, later spiking above the psychologically significant $1.50 mark. The euro bought $1.4987 in late afternoon trading in New York, compared with $1.4893 Friday.

The British pound jumped to $1.6836 from $1.6672, after trading as low as $1.666 after Bernanke's comments. The dollar fell to 88.98 Japanese yen from 89.63 yen.

In remarks to the Economic Club of New York, Bernanke tried to bolster confidence in the dollar without actually raising rates. Economists expect the Fed will hold rates near zero at its next meeting on Dec. 15-16 and into part of next year to help the recovery gain traction.

"It is clear from the Chairman's remarks that the dollar's decline is not of sufficient proportions to prompt a change in the U.S. monetary policy," Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Marc Chandler wrote in a research note.
Also Monday, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose more than expected in October due largely to a big rebound in auto sales.
The dollar tends to lose value as a result of better-than-expected economic reports as investors pursue riskier, high-yielding assets in other countries.

In other late trading Monday, the dollar fell to 1.0068 Swiss francs from 1.0135 late Friday, and edged down to 1.0467 Canadian dollars from 1.0517.

India is most-confident nation in Nielsen ranking

Tuesday November 17, 03:57 AM   Source: Indian Express Finance (Courtesy: Yahoo! Finance)


By fe Bureau

India, Indonesia and Norway continued to top the global rankings for the most-confident nations, while the most pessimistic nations were Latvia and Japan, says the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, which jumped from 77 index points in April to 86 points this month. Among other BRIC nations, consumer confidence rose 8 points in India, 6 points in China and 4 points in Russia compared to the previous quarter. Consumer confidence fell in only two countries such as Spain (-4) and Japan (-2) in the third quarter: Nielsen s Global Consumer Confidence Index tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending habits among more than 30,500 Internet users in 54 countries. In the latest round of the survey conducted between September 28-October 16, Hong Kong posted the largest consumer confidence increase in the third quarter compared to second quarter, up 14 points from 79 to 93 index points, followed by South Korea (+13 points) and Brazil (+12 points). Along with the rest of the world, consumer sentiments in Singapore also improved by nine points in the last quarter to hit 96. A nine-point surge in consumer confidence signifies a welcome return to positive territory. It really demonstrates that in the last six months, a majority of consumer sentiment across the globe has shifted gears from recession to recovery the tide has turned, said Paul Richmond, managing director, consumer group, Nielsen Company, Singapore and Malaysia. Nielsen s global consumer confidence in October rebounded to almost the same level as the first half of 2008 before the very worst of the financial crisis hit global markets. The survey shows how much the pace of economic recovery has accelerated in the last six months, especially in Brazil and some Asian markets, said Richmond. In the recent survey 66% of global consumers said their economy is in recession compared to 71 in April 2009, but for many consumers in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, the recession is becoming past tense. Amongst the Chinese, 87% said their nation is out of recession, while over 60% of citizens in Hong Kong, Norway and Australia said the same. Meanwhile, half of Brazilians, Indians and Chileans also believed that the recession has ended. Among consumers who say they are still in recession, one in five (26%) expect that their country will be out of recession within 12 months. While global consumers continue to voice concern about job security and the economy, many have started to focus on other issues. Worry about job security has decreased over the past six months. In April, 20% global consumers named job security as their main concern in life, closely followed by the economy (19%). Today, 18% of global consumers say the economy is their prime concern, followed by job security (16%).

You are the First one!

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Jai